Economic Cycles and Political Implications

What is the likelihood of a US Recession during the next presidential term and does it pose a risk for the next President of the United States?

Sources:
NBER: http://www.nber.org/cycles/
Brookings: https://www.brookings.edu/opinions/2016-the-most-important-election-since-1932/
The Nation: https://www.thenation.com/article/heres-why-2016-may-be-the-most-important-election-of-our-lives/
Counter Punch: http://www.counterpunch.org/2016/06/07/the-most-important-election-ever/

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